A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
